A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
