It was 60 days in the past that Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while his coach berated him for missing a through-ball. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a sign or the source of Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. After the in-form star drilled in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?
That’s a rather hard question to answer. History, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding during this run, even as the positive results have stacked up.
Per the data, in only two games has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team which has just won ten consecutive victories, they seem weirdly vulnerable – however right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their talisman to bail them out with some crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened in London, and once more when facing United.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more efforts and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent the club must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Could it be another reality whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he was during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.
